ISLAMABAD: Geo-economic confrontation has emerged as the most significant global risk for 2026, followed by interstate conflict, extreme weather, societal polarisation, and misinformation and disinformation, according to the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Global Risks Report 2026, released on Wednesday.
The report warns that the global multilateral system is under mounting strain as declining trust, reduced transparency, weakening respect for the rule of law, and rising protectionism threaten international relations, trade, and investment, increasing the likelihood of conflict.
Geo-economic confrontation topped the near-term risk rankings, with 18 per cent of respondents identifying it as the risk most likely to trigger a global crisis in 2026. It was also ranked first in severity over the next two years, jumping eight positions compared to last year. State-based armed conflict ranked second for 2026, although it dropped to fifth place in the two-year outlook.
In an environment marked by intensifying rivalries and prolonged conflicts, the report cautioned that geo-economic confrontation could severely disrupt global supply chains, undermine economic stability, and weaken the cooperative capacity needed to manage future economic shocks.
On the geopolitical front, 68 per cent of respondents anticipated a shift toward a multipolar or fragmented global order over the next decade, in which middle and major powers increasingly set and enforce regional rules and norms—up four percentage points from last year.
Economic risks showed the sharpest collective rise in the two-year outlook. Risks related to economic downturn and inflation surged eight places to 11th and 21st, respectively, while the risk of an asset bubble burst climbed seven ranks to 18th position. The report warned that rising debt sustainability concerns, combined with economic bubbles and escalating geo-economic tensions, could usher in a new phase of global volatility.
Misinformation and disinformation ranked second in the two-year outlook, while cyber insecurity stood at sixth. Notably, the risk associated with adverse outcomes of artificial intelligence (AI) showed the steepest long-term rise, climbing from 30th place in the two-year horizon to fifth in the 10-year outlook, reflecting growing anxiety over its implications for labour markets, social cohesion, and security.
Societal polarisation ranked fourth for 2026 and third by 2028, while inequality placed seventh in both the two- and 10-year outlooks. For the second consecutive year, inequality was identified as the most interconnected global risk, closely followed by economic downturn, highlighting concerns over cost-of-living pressures and the entrenchment of “K-shaped economies” marked by widening disparities between rich and poor.
With immediate challenges overshadowing long-term priorities, environmental risks declined in the two-year rankings. Extreme weather slipped from second to fourth, pollution from sixth to ninth, while critical changes to Earth systems and biodiversity loss dropped seven and five places, respectively. All environmental risks also declined in severity scores, reflecting an absolute, not merely relative, shift in perception. However, over the 10-year horizon, environmental risks remained the most severe, led by extreme weather, biodiversity loss, and critical changes to Earth systems.
The report highlighted growing concerns over the integrity of online information, as distinguishing between authentic and synthetic content—across video, audio, and text—becomes increasingly difficult. Recent elections in countries including the United States, Ireland, the Netherlands, Pakistan, Japan, India, and Argentina were cited as having faced challenges from fabricated or misleading social media content.
Overall sentiment among leaders and experts remained deeply pessimistic. Half of respondents expected a turbulent or stormy global outlook over the next two years, up 14 percentage points from last year, while 40 per cent anticipated an unsettled environment. Looking ahead 10 years, 57 per cent foresaw a turbulent world, with only 11 per cent expecting stability or calm.
“The Global Risks Report offers an early warning system as the age of competition compounds global risks—from geo-economic confrontation to unchecked technology and rising debt,” said WEF Managing Director Saadia Zahidi, adding that while the risks are severe, none are inevitable.
WEF President and CEO Borge Brende noted that a new competitive global order is emerging as major powers seek to secure their spheres of influence. “In this shifting landscape, cooperation may look different than before, but collaborative approaches and dialogue remain essential,” he said.
The report assessed risks across three timeframes—2026, the next two years, and the next decade—concluding that near-term challenges such as armed conflict, the weaponisation of economic tools, and societal fragmentation are colliding with longer-term threats from technological acceleration and environmental degradation, further compounding global instability.
Story by Amin Ahmed
